We think the Fed underestimates this linkage, in part by using the trade-weighted value of the dollar rather than the absolute value (the trade-weighted dollar mixes together changes in the dollar with changes in the value of foreign currencies).
The pound's trade-weighted value rose by more than 20% between August 1996 and August 1997.
Sterling has lost 15% of its trade-weighted value over the past year, and 5% over the past month.
The euro's trade-weighted value, however, has risen by much less, taking it back to its value at launch in January 1999.
Given the fall in the pound of about 25% in its trade-weighted value from mid-2007, Britain's trading performance has been rather disappointing.
One reason is that, although the dollar has fallen sharply against the euro, its broad trade-weighted value has fallen by only 8% over the past 12 months.
The dollar's trade-weighted value declined by 0.9% over the week.
Even though Britain relies more than other European countries on Asian trade and investment, sterling should have the bigger effect, given that the trade-weighted value of the pound is about 25% higher than in mid-1996.
But the hefty depreciation of around a quarter in sterling's trade-weighted value since mid-2007 will still bolster the economy by making British producers of tradable goods and services more competitive both in foreign markets and at home.
The value of sterling against a trade-weighted basket of currencies is now around 25% lower than in mid-2007, before the financial crisis began.
ETF, for example, is weighted toward large-cap value stocks, according to Morningstar, but its low-beta characteristics helped boost performance during recent downswings.
In America, Japan's competitive cars and the value of the yen (at a 20-year low on a trade-weighted basis) threaten to become political issues again.
Most country funds, like other index funds, are market-weighted, meaning their exposure to different stocks is based on the total value of the stocks' shares outstanding in comparison with the market capitalization of other shares in that market.
Traditional capitalization-weighted index funds are lower cost, while alternative indexes often have higher exposures to size and value factors.
应用推荐