Barclays upgraded their GDP forecast last week to 7.6 percent from 7.5 percent, but said there is now upside risk to that number.
This might be a turning point for the stock, and a pullback would offer good downside, with virtually no upside risk.
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He has been able to share the upside and the risk.
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We begin the second quarter with continued upside potential, but the downside risk far exceeds the upside potential.
You want to miss that first 10% to the upside in order to reduce risk.
As with all important issues boasting unknown outcomes, there is both upside and downside risk to stocks.
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So, we position stocks in our portfolio based on how much upside we see relative to their risk.
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If this has the positive impact mentioned above, this could add upside risk to our estimates.
Demand should outweigh supply going forward and tension in the Middle East leave risk to the upside.
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In a word, AAPL stock price has a several times more huge downside risk than upside potential.
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Hence, options give a top manager the upside risk, as we say, but do not give them the downside risk.
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In the Sept. 2 issue of his newsletter, Way reports that PXP has five times more upside return potential than downside risk, tops among the exploration and production stocks.
The high expectations in the prices of these stocks expose investors to lots of downside risk and little upside potential.
Longer-term upside price risk is here to stay.
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Success will bring 10% to 20% of upside, compared to a maneageable 5% downside risk.
However, the truth is, when you reduce potential upside, risk starts to look less palatable.
We look for situations in which the downside risk is much lower than upside potential.
But when the expectation and narrative is all negative we risk leaving ourselves out of the upside.
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Thus, the high level of resource utilization remains an important upside risk to continued progress in reducing inflation.
But what we did was we tried to look at the scientific evidence and figure out where are areas where low risk environmentally and a high potential upside.
To me this suggest that the market has already priced in a lot of good news and risen to a level from which there will be limited upside potential (and substantial downside risk) for several quarters.
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Barclays now sees upside risk to their Q4 GDP estimate of 2.5%.
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The latest data from Macao shows September gaming revenues could grow 18% to 22% year-over-year, and the opening of the Sands Cotai Central Phase II on September 20 could introduce upside risk to that estimate, according to Nomura.
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However, that surge is an upside risk, not part of the main economic forecast.
New Mexico mentioned it as an upside risk but did not build it into their estimate.
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Light to moderate gains are likely, but price risk is greater on the downside than the upside.
Thus, if the market is wrong that Apple is The Next Nokia, the downside risk is 5% for a marked upside potential.
However, inventories are starting to come down and new housing starts will follow with a six-month lag, Barclays analysts said, providing some upside risk to demand for cement, steel and copper.
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