Porges points out that there is an FDA-mandated safety study of Copaxone in combination with Tysabri.
Even by itself, Tysabri is twice as effective as any of the existing drugs alone.
Patients in the trial took Tysabri for a year and a half, on average.
Tysabri slowed the progression of the disease in clinical trials by suppressing the immune system.
Executives on a conference call were optimistic that Tysabri might return to the market for some patients.
Bernstein says that in the best-case scenario, Tysabri would get a black box warning--the most serious kind.
For the first twelve months after the deal closes, it will amount to 12% of annual Tysabri sales.
FORBES: In Wise Move, Biogen Spends $3.25 Billion For Rest Of Tysabri. Now What Happens To Elan?
Avonex and similar drugs decrease the rate of MS relapses by 30%, Gilenya by 50%, Tysabri by 70%.
For those 100, 000 or so patients in the U.S., Kam says Tysabri can greatly improve their quality of life.
It's possible the virus would not have gained a toehold if the patients had been treated with Tysabri alone.
But it's also possible that long-term use of Tysabri alone is also dangerous when given for a long time.
But just exactly how much upside Tysabri can muster is the billion-dollar question.
Avonex and Tysabri treat the neurological disease multiple sclerosis, and make the company the leading producer of MS treatments.
But rare events like those that effect Tysabri are harder to pin down.
But despite the side effect, patients with severe MS wanted Tysabri, and sales were growing at a double-digit clip.
All of the existing MS drugs, he says, will probably give some ground to Tysabri, but nobody knows how much.
The FDA will reconsider Tysabri this week, and in hopes of a positive outcome, gurus kept on buying last week.
These facts, according to Kam, mean that there is no good reason to withhold Tysabri from this group of patients.
Now, the question is whether Biogen Idec can deliver the Tysabri launch that bullish investors have been dreaming of for years.
One of those, Tysabri, was placed back on the list after it was withdrawn by its manufacturers (see: " The Graduates").
Until now, Elan was contributing financially to the marketing of Tysabri and had a say in the strategy for the drug.
FORBES: In Wise Move, Biogen Spends $3.25 Billion For Rest Of Tysabri. Now What Happens To Elan?
Another biotech idea is Biogen Idec ( BIIB, 141), where growth expectations are tied largely to Tysabri, a multiple sclerosis drug.
An Elan spokeswoman declined to comment regarding potential price increases for Tysabri, saying it was "too premature to discuss" at this point.
Shares are up 60% for the year, largely on expectations for Tysabri.
Biogen hopes Tysabri might change that--and that it will reap the rewards.
Tysabri, however, is so good that it may steal sales from Avonex.
Tysabri was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in November 2004.
Whatever else can be said about Tysabri, it is certainly no Vioxx.
Tysabri, the multiple sclerosis drug made by Biogen-Idec and Elan, was pulled from the market for increasing the risk of deadly brain infection.
If 10% of these patients switch to Tysabri, it would mean an additional 30, 000 MS patients that Wall Street is not counting on.
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