It is true that we have had a peak in manufacturiong employment in hte US. It is not true that we have had a peak in manufacturing output in the US. US manufacturing output continues to rise even while manufacturing employment falls.
The contention that the bulk of output from eastern Caspian producers will flow to a Russian terminal on the Black Sea may be true, but only for a limited time.
That is true in the technical sense (as Stephanie and I have bored you to tears about) that national output is still 3% below where it was at the peak of March 2008.