This sort of structure would provide leverage relative to traditional direct lending by EFSF in that given a relatively low probability of default, the total debt that could be insured would be larger than the total that could be lent directly.

FORBES: Euro Leaders Face Important Decision On Function Of EFSF

Then calculate the probability that the business value will sink below the sum total of its debts.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

"In view of how the laws of probability have yet to be repealed, a steep jump by subprime mortgage loans share of total mortgage originations from the 9% of 1996 to 2000 to the 21% of 2004 to 2006 practically assured an upward shift in mortgage delinquencies, " wrote Moody's in a report Tuesday.

FORBES: Magazine Article