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The daily OBV (not shown) formed a negative divergence at the island top in October.
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"There was a divergence of agendas, on top of a monumental struggle for power, " says Hatem Bazian, an Islamic law professor at the University of California at Berkeley, who tried to mediate the dispute.
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The four-month divergence suggested an intermediate-term top could be forming.
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This divergence warned of the short-term top in early October.
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This slight divergence does not seem enough to suggest that a top is in place.
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The MACD-His was even weaker in September, and the negative divergence (line f) is consistent with a major top.
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But that bottom-line number conceals a widening divergence between the family patterns of the college-educated top one-third, where family life is increasingly stable, and those of the non-college-educated bottom two-thirds, where family life is increasingly disrupted.
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The McClellan oscillator has now formed a short-term negative divergence, line c, which is consistent with a short term top.
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The longer-term negative divergence in the OBV (line h) is consistent with a major top.
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Of course, in very strong bull or bear markets, we must rely on technical indicators that can stay with strongly trending markets, as momentum indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator or Relative Strength Index (RSI) will top or bottom out well ahead of prices.
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