Europe is in recession now, with a major uncertainty about the timing of its recovery.

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At the start, in other words, Mr Clinton was lucky over timing: the recovery began too late for Mr Bush.

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The timing of any recovery for the PGMs is somewhat up in the air since it depends on factors such as how fast auto output rebounds from the Japanese quake and future economic data.

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There remains a risk in terms of timing: cut too early and it could jeopardise the country's fragile economic recovery. (The latest figures show a services sector in reasonable upswing but manufacturing considerably weaker than expected.) But before this week there was also a danger of Britain's debt crisis getting out of hand.

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There is a broad consensus about the importance of fiscal sustainability, but the precise timing and sequencing of that consolidation should vary across countries and be calibrated to maintain the momentum of private sector recovery.

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However, other analysts said that while the change in timing of the New Year celebrations did have an impact on the numbers, the overall trend was that of a recovery in the Chinese economy.

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