This change to the win probability model made our Champions League projections a little more accurate.
Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.
"The probability that a model ETF manager outperforms after all fees is remote, " he says.
In the new study biostatistician Ira Longini at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle devised a computer model to calculate the probability that such an outbreak pattern could occur without human transmission.
Ongoing relationships with community banks have also helped Sageworks develop a statistically based model predicting the probability that, within a year, a business will default on a loan.
Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probability model is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.
My model that determines the probability of reaching a long-term target is multi-dimensional and quite complex.
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Under KMV's model, the typical default probability is 15% in Indonesia and 18% in Thailand.
The computer model combined the monthly probabilities of conceiving, the risk of miscarriage and the probability of becoming permanently sterile through age.
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The model tells us that there is a high probability that we have seen a significant low.
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Dr Farley believes that if fed data on the number of members of a network who have been apprehended, an ordered-set model can give the authorities an estimate of the probability that the network has been disrupted.
Price drops or runups that the coin-tossing model sees as impossible--changes with a probability of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth--occur frequently.
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