So even though Oracle could financially make a large move, we think the probability is remote.
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Their assessment is that, while the probability is low, the risk of a debt crisis is real.
If the probability is less than this magic 5% level, the result is significant, and thus, relevant to study.
At this point, we think the probability is low for a few reasons.
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The probability is high that Cyprus gold will not be dumped on the open market, but bought by Asian central banks.
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Guglielmo cites Barclays analyst Reitzes as saying that the probability is high that there will be a larger-screen iPhone in the pipeline.
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When a stock is closest to the monthly Starc- band, the probability is that those stocks are likely to stabilize or rally.
But the probability is that Brezhnev decided that, after six years delving into the most intimate secrets of the Soviet leadership, Mr Semichastny had become dangerous.
The probability is very high that in the days and months following the IPO investors will have opportunities to sell their shares at a substantial profit.
So the probability is that the creation of a proper cordon sanitaire around Europe's banks won't involve fresh burdens on the shareholders of Britain's banks or on British taxpayers.
That has not happened yet in this cycle, but I believe the probability is high that continued low interest rates will nudge stock prices up into higher multiples of earnings, assuming earnings continue to grow at a modest rate.
With two other unions, the International Teamsters and the Food Workers, representing around 7, 000 California farm workers, the probability is that only two in every 100 of the labourers toiling in the California fields are represented by a union even though farm workers in California have had the freedom to form unions since 1975.
Really, at the end of the day, what you are doing is, you are determining the probability and the mathematical expectation, which is the probability of how often it loses.
Look at the current odds and the narrow probability is that the Security Council personnel will not change that much.
And yet, the big surprise is that the probability of winning in either game is the same: fifty-fifty.
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The primary reason is that the probability of an option being out of the money on expiration day (Prob OTM in the graphic above) is 58% in this example.
If one in 1, 000 people have a disease and the false-positive rate for a test is 5%, then the probability that a person testing positive has the disease is at most 2%.
By contrast, in fat-tailed distributions, the median is extremely small compared to the mean, meaning that the probability of infrequent events is enormous.
But calculating the average probability for a group is much easier than calculating the same probability for any individual.
The only way the Hartle-Hawking wave function can explain an expanding universe with a reasonable probability is if the many-worlds picture is the right one.
On the vertical axis of each graph is the probability of autism.
When debt is treated more like a utility, with the lender managing risk so there is a high probability the loan and the agreed-upon yield will be paid, such lending is more consistent with its economic purpose.
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Unless we assume that entrepreneurs are crazy, the fact that the probability of windfall profits is vanishingly small for the vast majority of ventures only adds to this argument.
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For example, when given a description of a woman who is concerned about discrimination and asked if she is more likely to be a bank teller or a bank teller who is a feminist activist, people tend to assume she is the latter even though probability laws tell us she is much more likely to be the former.
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The most important point is the way probability works when basic strategy and card counting are accurately applied.
For a bond investor, the answer largely hinges on two assumptions: What is the probability of a bank defaulting?
In fact, when the pool is that big, the best chance of winning is to throw the rules of probability out the window and just hope your crazy picks pan out.
Under KMV's model, the typical default probability is 15% in Indonesia and 18% in Thailand.
If the probability of success is high and can be proven, the idea holds water and we have a problem.
The probability of default is the likelihood that a company will be unable to meet its financial obligations over the next 12 months.
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