Still, these joys are real, and even if you shrug at the Yankees' recent injuries, you'll admit that the team might give their fans a chance to savor them this year.

WSJ: How to Enjoy Lousy Baseball

Of course, there is always a chance that you might be exactly right and the rest of the market participants wrong.

FORBES: Why I Don't Care What Apple Is Worth

There's a 25% chance that people will die in the ambulance and then on the operating table you might not survive it.

BBC: Stoke City legend Terry Conroy recovers from surgery

By random chance, there is a 25% probability that a given fund will be in the top quartile so you might expect that at least 25% of these top performers stayed in the top quartile.

FORBES: Forget the Fiscal Cliff. Here are the Real Threats to Your Portfolio.

So, if you accept that Microsoft knew about Siri and had the chance to bid, which seems reasonable, what might have happened?

FORBES: Suppose Microsoft Had Bought Siri?

But if the Chinese came to us and said, 'Look, here's what we have cooking, ' I'm not going to tell you I'm shutting the door today to something that's logical and might have a chance of success.

NPR: As US Talks Up Diplomacy, NKorea Takes Hard Line