Physical infrastructure is increasingly unsuited to the risks, and both long- and short-term prediction are problematic for many threats.

FORBES: Convicted Italian Seismologists: Scientists as Fall Guys

But the game has not yet been around long enough to assess its track record for longer-term prediction, says David Pennock, a senior researcher at Yahoo!

ECONOMIST: Monitor

"iFACTS, based on Trajectory Prediction and Medium Term Conflict Detection, provides decision-making support and helps controllers manage their routine workload, increasing the amount of traffic they can comfortably handle, " trumpets the Nats website.

BBC: Why air traffic control still needs the human touch

The Centre for Cities then looked at the proportion of unemployed young people who have been out of work for more than a year to come up with the prediction of 350, 000 long-term unemployed 16 to 24 year olds by December 2011.

BBC: Young jobless capital is revealed

He bases his prediction on this: The first year of a new President's term has often been marked by a big tax bill.

FORBES: Where's My Tax Cut?

That is a relatively optimistic prediction, for it would merely return the bankruptcy rate close to its long-term average after an abnormally trouble-free period, and it assumes only a mild recession in America.

ECONOMIST: Bankruptcies in America