The variable Stock and Watson ultimately cite is the decline in labor force participation, and they argue it is driven by the aging of the workforce and the overall distribution of workers by age.
Another critical variable in every stock market relates to which sectors dominate the capitalization of the index.
MetLife sells as if 10 year Treasuries will yield 2 percent for the next 5 years, that the stock market withers below 1000 and variable annuity sales dry up.
CEOs are paid relatively small salaries and make most of their money from variable pay like bonuses and stock options.
They know it, so attempts at major legislation have tended to crowd in the first two years hence stock returns on average have been more variable then. (For US stocks, but the pattern largely holds for global stocks.) There have been plenty of big double-digit positive years in years one and two, but the variability drags down the averages to 8% and 9% respectively.
The capital that earns a variable return--the equity, the common stock--is taxed twice.
About one-third or more of their pay is variable -- cash bonuses and SARs, tied to individual, business and stock market performance.
In July 2002 McCombs entered into a variable prepaid forward contract with JP Morgan with 12 different tranches to be settled (with stock or cash) in 2003, 2004 and 2005. (The bank dubbed the structure Principal Installment Stock Monetization or PrISM.) In August 2002 McCombs also agreed to lend 11.3 million shares of Clear Channel to JPMorgan Chase.
Yes, says Strathclyde's Mr Hughes Hallett, but the stock of existing home loans (as opposed to the flow of new ones) is still mostly at a variable rate.
With this sort of contract, the owner of a big, highly appreciated stock position gets an upfront payment from an investment firm--typically for 75% to 85% of the value of his shares--in exchange for agreeing to deliver a variable number of shares or cash in the future, with the exact amount dependent on how the stock performs.
Although current income has been a recent key driver of stock returns of cash-rich companies and has generated more certainty for investors, growth in earnings is much more variable and uncertain.
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