Advisor beliefs about future stock returns have practically no value as a forward indicator of returns.
It calls into question whether economic growth has anything to do with stock returns.
Indeed, the proportion of independent directors on the boards was inversely related to companies' stock returns.
They also concluded that the HSNSI is more strongly related to past rather than future stock returns.
But other measures, such as sectoral differences in stock returns, suggest that the downturn's impacts were historically uneven.
If share prices are low, then stock returns are high, and vice versa.
Moreover, as investors chase stock returns, they are dumping fixed-income products, which will likely put pressure on interest rates.
The big returns of the 1990s made big stock returns seem easy too easy.
There isn't much evidence that, in the long run, flows in or out of mutual funds matter a lot to stock returns.
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Countries whose economies are growing quickly don't necessarily produce handsome stock returns.
Past stock returns have a high correlation with current advisor sentiment while current advisor sentiment has no value in forecasting future stock returns.
And, as my colleague Art Steinmetz pointed out here recently, high relative earnings yields may bode well for future stock returns.
Matt Swaim, managing director at Chicago-based value shop Advisory Research, says he understands perfectly well why value stock returns will outpace growth this year.
Bond returns are uncorrelated with stock returns over the long term.
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Pros: The dividends can be steadier than stock returns or interest rates and can be borrowed tax-free as long as the life insurance policy stays in force.
Ibbotson has studied stock returns back to 1972 and says thinly traded stocks beat highly liquid ones of equal market values in all four quartiles ranked by size.
Multiple-expansion is always an unknown factor in predicting stock returns.
Firms with CEOs in the highest 20% of realised pay generated stock returns 60% greater than those of other firms in their industries over the previous three years.
We analyzed the sources of stock returns over the 33-year period from Aug. 1, 1979-July 31, 2012 by separating out risk factors such as value, growth, momentum and company size.
Although current income has been a recent key driver of stock returns of cash-rich companies and has generated more certainty for investors, growth in earnings is much more variable and uncertain.
However, the tax efficiency of bond ETFs is not a big factor, because capital gains do not play as big of a part in bond returns as they do in stock returns.
Investors who are sensing high stock returns and are planning to jump back into the market must be careful and remember that this could be yet another bubble followed by yet another crash.
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The study compared and contrasted 11 companies that made the transition from good to great, and 11 peer companies that did not over a time period certain as judged by growth in stock returns.
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In summary, CXO Advisory Group found no connection between the maximum U.S. capital gains tax rate and U.S. stock market returns, and no relationship between changes in the maximum capital gains rate and stock returns.
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This data helps to shed light on the relationship between stock returns and growth, by honing in on the relationship, that is the spread, between stock and bond valuations on the one hand and growth on the other.
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Recently I made two tables, one showing stock returns (as measured by the MSCI World Index) over various periods beginning at the starting points of the tightening periods, the other showing returns beginning at the starting points of the loosening periods.
Looking at the change in short-interest, and stock returns, from July 29 to August 15, the authors initially found that short interest did increase for most stocks in their sample, and that returns were negative for more than three-quarters of them.
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This means that the data which shows a negative correlation between stock performance and GDP, has less data in it, and its negative correlation is only roughly 24%, while the analysis which shows a positive correlation between stock returns and GDP has a correlation of 66%.
They know it, so attempts at major legislation have tended to crowd in the first two years hence stock returns on average have been more variable then. (For US stocks, but the pattern largely holds for global stocks.) There have been plenty of big double-digit positive years in years one and two, but the variability drags down the averages to 8% and 9% respectively.
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