Fortunately, the life of the researcher is made easy by standard statistical software packages.
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What Dr Walther has shown is that many of the standard statistical techniques that are supposed to insure against spurious correlations are inadequate in this case.
To equalize the measurement of team performance across eras, we've created the G-score (as in "greatness"), basically a zippy name for what statistical connoisseurs call standard deviation.
And they have not conducted, or at least not presented, the standard statistical tests which would allow they or us to determine whether the results were the outcome of pure blind chance.
Right now hospital coders use a standard called the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems to classify patients and get reimbursed properly for their care.
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In statistical terms, optimism is more than one standard deviation above the historical average.
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Bearish sentiment is at unusually high levels, but not so high that it would be considered extraordinarily high. (In statistical terms, pessimism is less than two standard deviations away from its historical average.) The sharp increase comes as the market has pulled back, some large-cap stocks have declined notably over the past several weeks and uncertainty about the fiscal cliff looms.
Bullish sentiment is more than two standard deviations from its historical mean, making it a statistical outlier.
Thus it could be hard to get brokerage firms to sign on to a new standard unless their advisers are permitted to use models, back-tested portfolios and other such statistical monkeyshines.
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