Although the Super Bowl indicator may be a statistical oddity, the presidential election cycle theory appears to have some basis to it.

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The indicator was triggered by two important statistical events in the last week or so.

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Investors have been trying to stay afloat amid crosscurrents of conflicting economic data, yet it all boils down to one key question: Is the decline in housing a statistical anomaly related to the expiration of the first-time home buyer credit or is it a leading indicator of another sharp decline in the housing market?

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