Following a period of mass speculation, the stock market had crashed in 1929, and the investing world was looking for a better way.

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Granted, Bill's got to have something to talk about on stage at CES next week, but we're not putting much stock in the pure speculation of a fresh Seattle Times piece, which, without sources, simply holds that "Microsoft could also make a splash by announcing plans to give the Xbox 360 an internal HD-DVD drive".

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Direct investment by individuals in property and the stock markets is positive, but speculation, or over-investment, can be problematic.

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None of this would matter if the stock markets were in a hermetically sealed box, labelled speculation, insulated from the real economy.

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Market speculation that Cathay may take an equity stake in the airline resurfaced last week, boosting both companies' stock prices.

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With the stock market tumbling in the third quarter and other warning signals flashing red, there has been speculation that private equity portfolios would be hit hard and show big losses.

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The rich payday for Varian holders almost certainly will lead to speculation about the possibility of other deals and trigger higher stock prices for other small- and mid-tier players in the semi equipment sector.

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