The (very) lazy European assumption that SOCAR (the Azeri national champion) would be happy to sell its gas at the Turkish border needs totally rethinking.
The extremely able Mr. Baylarbayov made categorically clear to an international audience that Exxon was in formative discussions with SOCAR looking into pre-existing and potentially new plays in the Caspian.
That was my first hunch after hearing interesting stories in Azerbaijan for the past few days, but the rumours might have some credible clout given they are coming directly from SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan.
If SOCAR acquires the Greek company, expect the breaks to be put on any TAP ambitions, particularly as it would be very easy to resurrect the ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) pipeline plans, previously spearheaded by DEPA. Far more importantly, Azerbaijan also knows that for the Nabucco consortium to stand any chance of winning, it needs fresh funding in place, and the strategic involvement of a Shah Deniz II player.