Significantly, non-food manufactured products inflation, an indicator of demand side pressure, rose sharply from 4.8% in January to 6% in February and continues to stay well above its medium-term trend.

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And if Andrew Strauss's men needed any further indicator of Ricky Ponting side's decline, the two defeats in India followed their defeat by Pakistan at Headingley, making it the first time Australia have lost three Tests in a row since 1988-89.

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The flip side, of course, is that this indicator suggests bonds are overvalued on a relative basis.

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Combine an improving economy with this leading indicator and the employment pendulum appears to be swinging back to the employee side.

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But surely the Fed knows that employment is a lagging indicator, and using it as a leading indicator for its policies is almost sure to have it on the wrong side of the cycle.

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