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Maybe we can collect some good anecdotal data about whether the shrinking wealth effect will lead us into recession.
FORBES: The Wealth Effect And You
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The market for humdrum corporate servers supporting run-of-the-mill business applications is shrinking, in effect, since the price of the things is falling faster than the growth in volume being shipped.
ECONOMIST: Sun Microsystems
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During its monthly sales calls, GM has said it has found no evidence that gas prices had any effect whatsoever on shrinking large SUV sales.
FORBES: Magazine Article
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Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo recently proposed a system that could have the effect of breaking up, or shrinking, some of the biggest banks, and it seems the stock market has taken a dim view of the very same institutions.
FORBES: Connect
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Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta foreshadowed the crisis in a letter to Congress last November warning that if the law was implemented as written, then cuts scheduled to go into effect next January could result in the Navy shrinking to its smallest size in a century and the Air Force having the fewest number of planes in its entire history.
FORBES: Connect
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And, by the way, whether the rules work or not, they'll have an effect on the price and availability of credit - probably raising the price and shrinking the availability, for the period of implementation (at least) and possibly for longer.
BBC: Why have we left bank reform to technocrats?