Our analysis suggests that a severe contraction in debt or available credit is a key component in every recession.

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Unfortunately the cure--a severe contraction of its operations--looks as bad as the disease.

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The risk with such crude measures is that it is easy to overdo things and cause a more severe contraction than intended.

ECONOMIST: China's economy

The recession we face has at its core a severe contraction in credit - so we need exceptional policies to get credit moving again.

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But it was partly a natural response to a severe contraction (in the Baltics, for example, GDP fell by up to a fifth from peak to trough).

ECONOMIST: Eastern Europe��s economies: Some calm amid storms | The

In the midst of this comedy recession where we have witnessed a severe contraction in our GDL -- gross domestic laughter -- there is one potential goldmine that could use a bit more exploration.

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Either way, a banking crisis and a severe economic contraction appear inevitable.

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Now that the Lubrizol deal is closed, perhaps Buffett wants to slow his takeover machine until he can get a better grasp of how severe the contraction in the global economy will be.

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Instead of paying back the excesses of the credit boom in terms of magnitude (a more severe economic contraction that clears the system), we have opted to repay debt in the duration of our economic malaise, thereby opting to stunt the natural course of deleveraging by borrowing more at the sovereign level and printing money.

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The economic contraction as the United States draws down is likely to be less severe than might be supposed, partly because the hundreds of billions that the U.S. military has spent in Afghanistan over the past decade is spending that almost entirely benefits the United States.

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Fears of economic contraction continue to grow, and after two years of histrionic punditry over the inevitable return of severe inflationary pressures, public gaze has begun to shift towards the truly frightening prospect of deflation.

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