Those in the gloomy camp, epitomised by Messrs Roubini and Setser, put forward several reasons why it will happen sooner rather than later.

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Messrs Roubini and Setser accuse the Fund and its major shareholders in the capitals of the rich world of coming close to abdicating their traditional roles.

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Brad Setser, of Roubini Global Economics, an economic-analysis website, is paid to spend two to three hours or so each day blogging as a part of his job.

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At the other extreme, Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser, of Roubini Global Economics, think that American interest rates could rise by up to 2 percentage points if Asian central banks stopped their intervention.

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