Of course, from a seasonal standpoint stocks are typically strong into the middle of the year, and I would expect to see more signs in the first quarter that the economy is actually getting stronger.
Of course, you can also do seasonal analysis on individual stocks.
As discussed in late January, the seasonal pattern is for stocks to correct for most of January before starting to turn higher in the first week of March.
Meanwhile, swine flu vaccines are being released to GPs in south Wales whose stocks are running low of the seasonal flu vaccine.
Several years ago, I became more intrigued with seasonal analysis after several interviews with John Person, who has done extensive seasonal work on commodities as well as individual stocks and sectors.
But after that, he expects seasonal forces and federal-budget politicking to send stocks into a characteristic second- and third-quarter correction.
In those years the market made gains in the winter months, and then, fueled by massive government stimulus programs, continued still higher during the summer months when a seasonal investor would have been invested in something other than stocks.
The financial crisis trumped seasonal market forces from October 2007 through August 2009, but stocks have been tracking historical patterns pretty closely since the fall of 2009, Mr. Hirsch says.
Typically, the homebuilding stocks bottom in October and November, and you can see that the seasonal downtrend (line c) is broken during the latter part of October and then often retested in November before the uptrend is clearly established.
In our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy we use sector funds as well as index funds, avoiding individual stocks.
Take advantage of these momentous and seasonal shifts and make sure you have an appropriate allocation to equities poised to benefit, such as global natural resources stocks.
FORBES: Why Resource Investors Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead
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