Scenario 2: You retire during a period of high interest rates and after a long period of stock market disappointment in 1980.
We expect 1.7% growth in real personal consumption expenditures in the four quarters ending September 2008 even under our soft-landing scenario, below the 2% four-quarter low in the 2001 recession (see graph and further discussion in the attachment.) In recent years, we predicted and explained the resilience in U.S. consumption growth in terms of job prospects and the high actual household savings rate.
The three key features of this magic negotiation crystal ball include: (1) scenario planning, (2) negotiation move planning, and (3) offer projections.
The worst-case scenario could negatively impact iPad 2 shipments in Q3 if the Chengdu plants were to shut down for more than 2-3 months, which again we do not believe is likely.
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Under the alternative fiscal scenario, real GNP would be 2 percent to 6 percent lower in 2025, and 7 percent to 18 percent lower in 2035, than under a stable economic environment.
In such a scenario, Son is already using the 2.5GHz spectrum in his very efficient Japanese operation.
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The best-case scenario is that the yield will fall to 2%--or lower.
Even in 2035, with the most optimistic scenario, the International Energy Agency estimates that just 2.4% of the world's energy will come from wind and only 1% from solar.
Razer warned us that it has yet to put the internal power pack through its paces, but even in a best case scenario, the tax for high performance is evident: 2-4 hours of portable gaming, tops.
Given this scenario, my estimate for U.S. GDP growth is 2.5 percent on average over the next 10 years.
According to their baseline scenario, U.S. GDP is expected to grow just 2.2% this year and 1.8% in 2013.
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The doomsday scenario for Italy coming in was that Croatia and Spain might play to a 2-2 gentlemen's draw, virtually assuring that each of them would go through.
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