"Given the scale of the global credit card networks, it is almost impossible to detect every kind of attack, " he said.

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For that to happen the big retail chains would have to start offering a sliding scale of discounts or other incentives to consumers at the cash register for using one card instead of another, or cash.

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Shocks are still likely: for instance, the size of the bubble and scale of the bust may overturn historic relationships such as that between unemployment rates and credit-card losses.

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Nor the fact that credit-card rates are fixed in secret, and have risen dramatically despite advances in technology and economies of scale.

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