In fact, when the pool is that big, the best chance of winning is to throw the rulesofprobability out the window and just hope your crazy picks pan out.
These episodes in individual tales display such striking regularities in aggregate that some of the social scientists who first applied the rulesofprobability to human affairs questioned the very notion of free will.
Kahneman and Tversky also showed that people tend to use general rules, such as representativeness, to make judgments that contradict the laws ofprobability.
In theory, the new Basel III capital rules should be good news for bond investors since they will make banks safer, reducing the probabilityof default.