True analysts need to base their call or prediction on research and facts.

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New research may increase the window of prediction from the current seven or eight days to 10 to 12 days before the event, Sobel said.

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The Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA) even launched its own prediction market known as FutureMAP for intelligence purposes in 2001, though the program was canceled for political reasons in 2003.

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In September, Forrester Research adjusted its outlook for IT spending, pushing back its prediction of a recession until the last months of 2008 and much of 2009.

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The researchers will leverage a first-of-its-kind learning and predictive analytics tool called the IBM Traffic Prediction Tool (TPT), developed by IBM Research, which continuously analyzes congestion data, commuter locations and expected travel start times throughout a metropolitan region that can affect commuters on highways, rail-lines and urban roads.

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On Wednesday, Dan Geer, Alex Hutton and Greg Shannon plan to give a talk at the cybersecurity-focused conference SOURCE in Boston on using prediction markets to gain foresight into future events in cryptography research, cyber threats, and even data security-related regulation.

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Expected outcomes of this research include equipping members with the ability to improve planning and reliability of operations through the use of prediction and optimization in the areas of outage and asset management.

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