Already, the relative scarcity of Treasury paper has widened the yield spread between Treasurys and other debt instruments like agencies, mortgages and corporates.
The 5.29% yield tightened relative to treasuries by eight basis points on the day leaving the spread at 586 basis points above government short-dated paper.
Shaman converted the guinea pig data from relative humidity to absolute humidity and found the link between air moisture and flu spread got much stronger.
Unless the Fed has changed its mind about one percentage point being the desired spread in normal times, the discount rate will be raised again relative to the Federal Funds rate.
To test their theory, the two researchers first needed to find ecological equivalents of the differentiation-triggering chemicals: two things whose relative concentrations affect the shape of patches of vegetation and which like both to spread and to transmute into one another.
The reason: As long-haul carriers desperately slashed prices to fill seats and spread expenses, the implied price each passenger pays per connecting leg has dropped relative to the distance traveled during that leg.