His model is based on factors such as changes in bank lending, the economic growth rate and the size of the speculative-grade market (a glut of issuance tends to be an indicator of loose lending practices).
Noh says one study has shown that as young as the fifth grade, Asian-American girls have the highest rateof depression so severe they've contemplated suicide.
For individuals the good news is that there are mutual funds that make it easy to invest in diversified portfolios of floating-rate loans, mostly made by banks to corporations with less than investment-grade bond ratings.