Unfortunately, the probability that in the foreseeable future Iran's economic problems will cause the regime to moderate its policies or bring regime opponents to power in Iran's parliament is not high.

CENTERFORSECURITYPOLICY: Bankrupting Iran is not enough

It will be highly unlikely to resolve the relative problems faced by the Euro, and instead will add an overlay of new problems that will prove devastating for the Euro economy, the wider European economy and in all probability the global economy.

FORBES: Handicapping a 2012 Eurozone Meltdown

And if those debating things like the Climate Change Act cannot even calculate the probability of two heads in a row what are they going to manage with more complex problems?

FORBES: Politicians Really Are Ignorant: Now We Have Proof

He argues that, in order to bump up the probability that the restructuring would put an end to Uruguay's debt problems, investors would probably have had to accept a bigger hit.

ECONOMIST: Emerging markets