Look at the current odds and the narrow probability is that the Security Council personnel will not change that much.

ECONOMIST: Leaders

These tools increase our odds and provide a reliable probability analysis.

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Deflation is a concern, although he rates the odds as low with only a 20%-25% probability.

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Only in the quartile with exposures above 31.8 parts per billion do the odds values exceed 1, yet the figure suggests that at higher levels, probability starts to drop again.

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With 10 horses running in each race, it would seem that the odds of any one district running winning would be 1:10, or a 10% probability for the Wave to win.

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Anything lower reduces the expected cost of criminality, without doing anything to improve the probability of detection. (Treating whistleblowers leniently is consistent with this logic: letting them off punishment raises the odds of truth-telling, and therefore of detection.) There are plenty of arguments against ultra-high fines, however.

ECONOMIST: Free exchange