This change to the win probability model made our Champions League projections a little more accurate.
Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probability model is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.
"The probability that a model ETF manager outperforms after all fees is remote, " he says.
Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.
Ongoing relationships with community banks have also helped Sageworks develop a statistically based model predicting the probability that, within a year, a business will default on a loan.
My model that determines the probability of reaching a long-term target is multi-dimensional and quite complex.
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In the new study biostatistician Ira Longini at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle devised a computer model to calculate the probability that such an outbreak pattern could occur without human transmission.
Under KMV's model, the typical default probability is 15% in Indonesia and 18% in Thailand.
The model tells us that there is a high probability that we have seen a significant low.
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Price drops or runups that the coin-tossing model sees as impossible--changes with a probability of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth--occur frequently.
Dr Farley believes that if fed data on the number of members of a network who have been apprehended, an ordered-set model can give the authorities an estimate of the probability that the network has been disrupted.
The computer model combined the monthly probabilities of conceiving, the risk of miscarriage and the probability of becoming permanently sterile through age.
BBC: The researchers evaluated women's chances of conceiving
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