In these circumstances, the probability that inflation will exceed the Bank's central-band forecast is greater than the probability that it will come in lower than the band.
However, because of the erratic nature of hurricane movements, the forecast "cone of probability" shows the path of the storm could take it south into northern Mexico or north to western Louisiana.
Mr Geithner understands better than almost anyone that in crises you throw out the forecast and focus on avoiding low probability events with catastrophic consequences.