To support this kind of thinking, we have developed great analytic tools (statistics, probability, computer simulations, etc.).

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In the new study biostatistician Ira Longini at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle devised a computer model to calculate the probability that such an outbreak pattern could occur without human transmission.

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The computer model combined the monthly probabilities of conceiving, the risk of miscarriage and the probability of becoming permanently sterile through age.

BBC: The researchers evaluated women's chances of conceiving

Computer models are written for everything from determining early pre-payments on mortgages to the probability that a high-yield bond will default.

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