Probability calculations could be refined to take into account how different bodies withstand crashes.

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When Mr. Bernanke made his speech, price movements in options markets suggested investors thought there was near 40% probability of deflation in the coming year, according to Barclays Capital calculations.

WSJ: QE2 Proves No Silver Bullet

The problem is those VAR calculations used historic data and traditional scientific standards of 95% or 99% probability.

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The Shanghai one, in all probability, will not recoup its cost, even if the permanent infrastructure expenses are stripped out of the calculations.

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The two researchers did some calculations--this field requires a black belt in statistics--and discovered that the probability that two people might have identical lists of movies with the same ratings is tiny.

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