But calculating the average probability for a group is much easier than calculating the same probability for any individual.

ECONOMIST: Crime prediction

The volunteers were then told the actual average probability of the event.

FORBES: Pollyanna Had Brain Damage! Study Claims Faulty Brain Wiring Sparks Unrealistic Optimism

The average probability of default translates to a B credit rating, according to Sageworks, the provider of the Business Credit Report by Sageworks.

FORBES: Private-company credit risk shows signs of improving

Bierman said the construction sector has also made gains in creditworthiness in recent months, based on the average probability of default as calculated by Sageworks.

FORBES: Private Builders' Sales Are Rising and So Are Their Costs

The average probability that a private construction company would default in the next year was 3.79 percent for the 12-month period ended Dec. 31, compared with 5.73 percent for the year-earlier period.

FORBES: Private-company credit risk shows signs of improving

Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.

FORBES: Private Retailers' Sales On The Move

The longer it holds above this short-term key moving average, the higher probability we could see a bounce back to highs.

FORBES: Apple Rots Anew, Facebook Fails Test, Gold Holds Luster

They find a a positive effect on test scores, compulsary school grades, choosing an academic high-school track, high-school grades, probability of attending college, and average education by age 24.

FORBES: Lessons on School Choice from Sweden

The longer we stay above that level, I believe the higher the probability we take out 1409 and travel to the 50-day moving average that stands around 1425.

FORBES: Housing Gives Stock Market Lift, Greece And Fiscal Cliff Weigh It Down