That performance led to an upgraded prediction in fourth-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share, a penny above Wall Street estimates.
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The 50% prediction interval is generally used to define expected performance within the TPI framework.
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Even the evaluation of manager or team performance are presented in terms of odds using the concept of linear regression prediction intervals.
But one of the most mind-bending is the low probability prediction that one of the five companies expected to launch a drug next year will actually manage to deliver good stock performance.
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