Now, No one is telling you the models are able to predict every minute aspect of climate, that would be impossible, but on a larger scale, the models that we use to predict, and really damned good.
FORBES: Antarctic Temperatures Are Rising Twice As Fast As Previously Predicted
On the face of it, a warmer world might be expected to create more storms, and some climate models predict it will.
Models predict the 2009 H1N1 flu will peak in October, with many cases being diagnosed in September, according to Dr. Robert Belshe, director of Saint Louis University's Center for Vaccine Development.
CNN: School: No shortage of volunteers for swine flu vaccine trials
Scientists note that current climate-change models predict that some parts of the Antarctic ice sheet will grow while other parts will shrink, and that parts of the Greenland ice also will melt.
The IPCC computer models predict a much larger warming, three degrees Celsius or even more, because they assume changes in water vapor or clouds that supposedly amplify the direct warming from CO2.
In addition, the models predict that 40% of Gulf of Mexico oil will be offline for 30 days and about 30% of natural gas will be offline for 30 days with marginal improvements after that.
Standard economic models predict that in the absence of clearly defined property rights, such common resources will be overexploited, with individuals acting without regard for the effects of their actions on the overall pool.
Other key fracking areas like New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are less obviously prone to drought, but climate models predict more frequent and longer heat waves during Northeast and Midwest summers, including severe drought in some regions (as well as more frequent flooding in spring).
Until recently, for a chance of rain of 30%, the Weather Channel's weather.com had shown icons of rain, which for users who don't look at percentages will look like a prediction of wet weather even though the firm's computer models predict that seven out of 10 times on similar days, there will be no rain.
In this case, the failure of IPCC computer models to accurately predict atmospheric heat loss provided strong evidence that the IPCC computer models are based on faulty assumptions.
FORBES: NASA Data Pit Scientific Method Against Climate Astrology
However, crises occur time and again, and far more frequently than most financial models would predict.
And the Black Swan is a famous book about extremely rare events that most financial models cannot predict.
Computer models all predict this region should have warmed more than the surface.
FORBES: What Happens When You Rub Two Climatologists Together?
Mathematical models cannot predict or uncover fraud as well as some may think.
Some weather models can predict the MJO three weeks ahead, he said, but others struggle to predict it a week ahead.
Nowhere is this more true than in research that builds computer models to predict the spread of outbreaks, based on previous ones.
Last year, the Journal of the American Medical Association published a review of models that predict which patients are at high risk for hospital readmission.
"The biggest implication from this particular study is that we were able to actually predict repellency based on models, synthesize compounds, test them in the laboratory, and get good agreement, " Bernier said.
Tracking these cells in animals at a cellular level over a whole year allowed the scientists to come up with mathematical models to predict what happens to our skin over long periods.
Similar to geologists evaluating how to produce a reservoir, the efficiency engineers use this comprehensive data to calibrate simulation models that predict the financial impact of a range of efficiency measures over the building life.
FORBES: Log Baby Log: The Race to The Big New Resource Play You Haven't Heard Of
He and others predict that new advertising models could emerge, such as charging a marketer only when an ad drives an in-store purchase, something retailers have been experimenting with and lusting after for a long time.
PayPal and Amazon have developed fraud detection tools that depend on massive datasets containing not only financial details for transactions, but IP addresses, browser information, and other technical data that will help these companies refine models to predict, identify, and prevent fraudulent activity.
FORBES: Anti-Fraud Is Big Opportunity For Google, PayPal, Amazon
At the time, new numerical weather models helped forecasters predict extreme weather events two to four days out, said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Since these are the models used to predict future climate and influence policy decisions, it is imperative that they can accurately simulate measurements of what is considered to be the driving mechanism behind climate change.
The longer-term impact of the credit crunch on lenders' business models is harder to predict (and depends in part on the severity of the housing-market slowdown).
ECONOMIST: Lenders in America and Britain retrench, but for how long?
In this case, technology needs to be partnered with sophisticated behavioral targeting through mathematical models that enable you to predict the most compelling content and offers based on known insights and data points about each visitor.
Risk management consultants say the models that banks use to predict the risks of their exposures don't work in these so-called "fat-tail" events, shocks that move otherwise predictable swings outside the parameters of clever computer programs and their keepers.
By combining many different kinds of signals it is possible to create models that can understand the present and predict the future.
FORBES: The Man-Machine Framework: How to Build Machine-Learning Applications the Right Way
To paraphrase Alan Kay, the easiest way to predict the future of work is to invent new organizational models.
But drought has gripped the Sun Belt in recent years, and federal scientists predict recurrent periods similar to the 1930s Dust Bowl if climate change models prove accurate.
应用推荐