The researchers used a database of more than 16, 000 energy plants to determine which underused plants were likely to make up a powershortfall if specific nuclear plants were closed.
In the long run Japan will also replace its shortfall of nuclear power with larger imports of gas, boosting the fortunes of countries like Brunei and Qatar.
Dramatic advances in technologies such as fuel cells and microturbines, which generate power efficiently and cleanly on a smaller scale, may make up the shortfall.
Natural gas power plants can increase or decrease their production relatively quickly, and that ability could help to make up for any shortfall in wind or solar generation, which varies depending on weather conditions, in order to meet demand.