Synagis, Porges says, could still have more room for growth on price increases and population growth.
Porges points out that there is an FDA-mandated safety study of Copaxone in combination with Tysabri.
But Porges warns that Amgen's U.S. product sales could be 2% below average estimates.
In two notes to investors, Geoffrey Porges , the biotech analyst at Sanford C.
More important, Porges kept in mind two forces that are shaping the pharmaceutical industry.
Porges thinks all the value is already priced in, and rates Genentech stock market perform.
Genentech is still planning a big trial of Avastin in front-line ovarian cancer, Porges said.
"This is a huge issue, " says Geoffrey Porges, a biotechnology analyst at Sanford C.
"It doesn't make any sense to me, " says Geoffrey Porges, a biotechnology analyst at Sanford C.
Some 70% of the time, Porges found, drugs were approved, and shares in their makers gradually rose.
"I think they are being very cautious on their language, " says Geoffrey Porges, the biotech analyst at Bernstein.
Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges estimates there are probably about 3, 000 patients with aHUS in the U.S. and Europe.
The "perverse consequence, " Porges says, is that the drug firms are pushed away from developing treatments for exotic diseases.
"Pfizer has one of strongest pipelines in oncology in the industry, " wrote Geoffrey Porges, the biotech analyst at Sanford C.
Porges estimates that the U.S. was going to need 90 million doses, up from 85 million in a normal year.
"It's likely to be significantly easier to recruit to the Amgen study, " predicts Geoffrey Porges, a biotech analyst at Sanford C.
Porges points out that Gilead (nasdaq: GILD - news - people ) gets a royalty on Tamiflu sales.
Geoff Porges at Bernstein, who had predicted that Amgen would make an acquisition, said in another note that the deal was a good fit.
"It's hard enough to go through a disaster like this on your own, " says Geoffrey Porges, the biotech analyst at Sanford C.
They account for almost half of Amgen's sales and 60% of its profits, estimates Geoffrey Porges, a senior analyst at Sanford C.
They account for almost half of Amgen's sales and 60% of its profits, estimates Geoffrey Porges, a senior analyst at Sanford Bernstein.
"People do read press releases over the weekend as well, " Porges says.
Instead, Porges says, the U.S. probably will wind up keeping a closer eye on vaccine makers and building a bigger stockpile of vaccine.
Porges has also written that a Genentech buyout by Roche might kill one of the most successful drug research labs in the pharmaceutical industry.
"One would definitely have thought" the company had a duty to disclose the news earlier, says Geoffrey Porges, a biotechnology analyst at Sanford C.
That may sound like a heap of money, and the margins, Porges estimates, will be significantly better than is usual in the flu-vaccine business.
The final safety data on the drug will be presented at ASCO, and Porges thinks they will determine whether doctors really use the drug.
Porges points out that because of the side effect issues, doctors may choose to try Copaxone instead of Avonex as half of a drug combo.
If it works in adult blindness, it may be possible to treat the disease with far cheaper doses of Avastin than with Lucentis, Porges argues.
The final months under the old pricing regime saw a mad scramble for market share, "an Oklahoma land rush, " says Sanford Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges.
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