The most important point is the way probability works when basic strategy and card counting are accurately applied.

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The offer of the bus fare, an amount which most of the men could have saved up to pay for themselves, led to a 22-percentage-point increase in the probability of migration.

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At this point, we think the probability is low for a few reasons.

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In all probability at this point, major funding partners like a BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) or Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) will step up.

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"The best probability at this point is they are natural, but we can't rule out the possibility that there may be a relationship, " Ausbrook said.

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Morgan Stanley Smith Barney predicts a 35% chance one country will break away from the EU at some point, compared to a 40% probability it will remain in tact, said Ron Hart, managing director of wealth management.

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"At the margin, this could reduce demand, but nobody should have been buying this stuff on the basis there wasn't a material probability of at least one junk rating at some point in the future, " Mr. McNamara said of the bond sale's postponement.

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Lonski added that the depth of the cut--the Fed usually operates in more measured 25 point increments--shows that the central bank agrees with a consensus view that there is a 32% probability of recession in the next 12 months.

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