And if Lincoln is destined to fall, it seems more likely that an upset would come at the hands of either Silver Linings Playbook (which I previously explained might be positioned for a surprise win) or Life of Pi, the only two films that have enough nominations in traditionally predictive categories to win Best Picture.

FORBES: Ben Affleck's 'Argo' Proves Golden At The Globes

Bill Block, who purchased indie films The Blair Witch Project and Pi for Artisan, and now runs QED, a film financing and distribution company, says the strategy makes sense.

FORBES: Wagering On The Grand

For example Life if Pi has been one of the most positively tweeted about films on Twitter.

FORBES: Watch How Good Twitter Is At Predicting Oscar Winners

American films that opened in China after "Life of Pi" and are awaiting their cut of box office grosses in the country include "Skyfall, " released by Sony Pictures Entertainment, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" from Time Warner Inc.

WSJ: Hollywood Studios Clash Over New China Tax

Two films did better than expected this weekend: Life of Pi and Red Dawn.

FORBES: 'Breaking Dawn', 'Skyfall', Lead A Huge Box Office Weekend

Moonrise Kingdom and The Master are among the films nominated for the Writers Guild's original screenplay prize, while Argo, Life of Pi and Lincoln compete for its adapted screenplay honour.

BBC: Sir Tom Stoppard