In the current CFTC report data, activity in the PGMs stood out the most.
FORBES: Focus: Speculators Continue To Favor PGM Futures, Options; Modest Interest In Gold -- CFTC
But, like Rocky, the PGMs are expected to eventually get their second wind and start fighting back.
FORBES: 2012 Outlook: PGMs To Be On Defensive In Early 2012; Recovery Will Hinge On Economy
Several other market watchers have said recently PGMs could be vulnerable to sharp sell-offs if bullish sentiment changes.
FORBES: Speculators Buy Up Precious, Base Metals Futures, Options -- CFTC
However, PGMs have been getting an extra lift from South African supply issues.
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Bart Melek, vice president and head of commodity research with TD Securities, also likes PGMs in the long term.
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In addition to lower prices for PGMs, mined volume also fell, Stillwater said.
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With the PGMs reaching such lofty levels, market analysts are beginning to sound alarms that positioning might be overextended.
FORBES: Focus: Speculators Continue To Favor PGM Futures, Options; Modest Interest In Gold -- CFTC
Rhodium, platinum and palladium are part of the platinum group metals (PGMs), primarily used to manufacture automobile emission control devices.
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World resources of PGMs in mineral concentrations that can be mined economically are estimated to total more than 100 million kilograms.
Thus, not only PGMs but other commodities could suffer early in the year due to continued capital outflows from risky assets generally.
FORBES: 2012 Outlook: PGMs To Be On Defensive In Early 2012; Recovery Will Hinge On Economy
Support could continue for the PGMs following the jobs data, said analysts.
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The main industrial use for PGMs is in catalytic converters in autos.
FORBES: METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Prices Could Correct Next Week, But Trend Remains Up
In the current CFTC report data, activity in the PGMs was mixed.
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Commercials raised their net-short positions in both PGMs in the legacy report.
FORBES: FOCUS: Speculators Start Buying Precious Metals Futures, Options Again -CFTC
Steve Scacaloss, vice president and director of global precious metals with TD Securities, said PGMs rose smartly after a bullish Johnson Matthey report.
FORBES: Platinum Group Metals Underpinned By Johnson Matthey Report, South African Strike
This is the largest net-long position for these types of accounts since the disaggregated report started in for the PGMs in March 2010.
FORBES: FOCUS: Speculators Add Again To Precious Metals Futures, Options -- CFTC
That could trickle into support for the PGMs as platinum and palladium rose in January on the back of a pickup in auto sales.
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The capacity of mine containing cuprous sulfides and sulfides with disseminated PGMs is rising faster than mines deriving PGMs from nickel-rich sulfide ores, he said.
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Funds also built on net long positions in PGMs. The net length in silver was pared, but more modestly than was the case in gold.
FORBES: Funds Shed Gold Positions, Bolster PGM Futures, Options - CFTC
George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures, pointed to optimism for improving demand for PGMs from the automotive sector.
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PGMs arrive in boxes, stay in boxes for months, then finally they need to start using it, screw up their library prep, get tired and service out.
Anne-Laure Tremblay, precious metals strategist at BNP Paribas, said while risk appetite is driving PGMs, she said investors need to stay vigilant with positioning at record highs.
FORBES: Speculators Buy Up Precious, Base Metals Futures, Options -- CFTC
Instead, the PGMs could be underpinned by the restarting of auto production in Japan after it was taken mostly off-line following the earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.
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As it was for platinum, this is the largest net-long position for these types of accounts since the disaggregated report started in for the PGMs in March 2010.
FORBES: FOCUS: Speculators Add Again To Precious Metals Futures, Options -- CFTC
After easing last week, net fund length across the PGMs also rose as fresh long positions were established with Nymex platinum closing in on its highest-ever levels, Barclays Capital said.
Non-commercials increased their gross long position and cut their gross short position, lifting the net-longs for both PGMs. Non-commercials are net-long 24, 302 contracts in platinum and net-long 13, 695 contracts in palladium.
FORBES: FOCUS: Speculators' Net-Long Gold Position Rises - CFTC
Non-commercials cut their gross long position and increased their gross short position, reducing the net-longs for both PGMs. Non-commercials are net-long 20, 127 contracts in platinum and net-long 12, 648 contracts in palladium.
FORBES: Speculators Increase Bullish Gold, Silver Positions, Cut PGMs -- CFTC Data
Those cars may not use PGMs in their construction.
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Even if economic growth in some Asian nations is less than in recent years, there is still potential for it to be high enough to buoy commodities in general, including PGMs, Zarembski said.
FORBES: 2012 Outlook: PGMs To Be On Defensive In Early 2012; Recovery Will Hinge On Economy
The timing of any recovery for the PGMs is somewhat up in the air since it depends on factors such as how fast auto output rebounds from the Japanese quake and future economic data.
FORBES: PGM Weakness Seen As Temporary; Supply Issues, Auto Recovery Should Support Prices
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