They could include, in no particular order of probability or potentially devastating impact on the stability of financial market, default by Greece, exit by Greece from the eurozone or a much more generous rescue deal.
One other quick point: you may want to start with an out of the money call butterfly or put butterfly inorder to lessen the probability of another party exercising an option you sell, as it is detrimental for them to do so while the option is out of the money.
He argues that, inorder to bump up the probability that the restructuring would put an end to Uruguay's debt problems, investors would probably have had to accept a bigger hit.
Once I find a market that I think has a high probability of going up or down, then further work must be done inorder to determine an entry level, potential stop, and price objective.
No less worrisome is the high probability that some nations will actually become signatories of the CWC but exploit its inherent verification limitations inorder to preserve an illicit chemical capability.