Republicans also enjoy slightly better footing in crucial Senate races than they did two months ago, when Democrats seemed well poised to increase their one-seat majority.
Four years ago he led the local Social Democrats to victory with 44.3% of the vote, giving them a one-seat absolute majority in the Hanover parliament.
Analysts say her majority of one in the 150-seat lower house of parliament will force Ms Gillard to negotiate issue-by-issue with the opposition Liberals.
The typical voter is middle-class and middle-aged, the seat having one of the highest proportions of voters over 40 and a majority of workers in managerial, technical and professional jobs.