Like the Martian dreams of most Earthlings, it seemed beyond all bounds of probability.
Also, anybody with a basic understanding of probability can prove mistakes are unlikely to even themselves out.
Mathematicians frame this issue in terms of probability -- that is, the likelihood that something will happen.
It concluded that "on the balance of probability, significant financial abuse of the six vulnerable adults did take place" in the two homes.
Kahneman and Tversky also showed that people tend to use general rules, such as representativeness, to make judgments that contradict the laws of probability.
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The maths tells us that in respect of probability, people are much like tosses of a coin: we will see occasional clusters, even of cancer.
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The probability of loss obviously declines with multiple sites but the mathematics of that probability are still based on the probability of loss at each individual site.
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In terms of probability (where 1 is a certainty and 0 an impossibility), that translates into a likelihood of 0.000...0006, where there are 138 zeros before the six.
"The way we do this is essentially by modeling the surface of the keyboard as a series of probability distributions, " said Ben Medlock, chief technology officer at TouchType Ltd.
But without public databases available with data about GMO use, for example, companies like Fooducate are only able to offer a level of probability that a product contains GMO ingredients.
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In fact, when the pool is that big, the best chance of winning is to throw the rules of probability out the window and just hope your crazy picks pan out.
However, because of the erratic nature of hurricane movements, the forecast "cone of probability" shows the path of the storm could take it south into northern Mexico or north to western Louisiana.
Perhaps as a result, few people understand that the Family Court has the power to take away your child, for ever, on the balance of probability, in the absence of any criminal conviction.
The inquest heard that nuts, bolts and a ratchet spanner were later found in the slurry and on the balance of probability it was believed Mr Whipps had tried to solve the valve problem.
These episodes in individual tales display such striking regularities in aggregate that some of the social scientists who first applied the rules of probability to human affairs questioned the very notion of free will.
They could include, in no particular order of probability or potentially devastating impact on the stability of financial market, default by Greece, exit by Greece from the eurozone or a much more generous rescue deal.
He added that he wanted to see a greater emphasis on logical and mathematical thinking, and that he would like to see algebraic concepts and the beginnings of probability introduced and developed throughout the primary school.
That the iPhone 5 might get one third of the iPhone market, or one third of the smart-phone marketplace, or possibly even one third of all phone sales: all seem possible with lowering levels of probability.
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"In view of how the laws of probability have yet to be repealed, a steep jump by subprime mortgage loans share of total mortgage originations from the 9% of 1996 to 2000 to the 21% of 2004 to 2006 practically assured an upward shift in mortgage delinquencies, " wrote Moody's in a report Tuesday.
At heart it is an argument over the probability of serious damage as a result of climate change and the probability of serious damage as a result of trying to avoid it.
The pricing of the probability of an outright World Cup win is more conservative than on exchanges where there are other possible prizes and dividends.
Economists such as Mitchell Polinsky, of Stanford Law School, and Steven Shavell, of Harvard Law School, argue that to deter harmful conduct, punitive damages should be equivalent to the amount of harm caused, multiplied by the inverse of the probability of detection.
In this we see the genius of the entire book: Silver is able to appeal to those who are both mathematically and non-mathematically inclined, building a compelling story as to why both types of reader should be interested in the better quantification and understanding of the probability of the events that surround us every day.
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Typically, in a variation of the Allais experiment, subjects are asked to consider two different lotteries one with a big probability of winning a small prize and another with a smaller probability of winning a big one.
The lower probability of future dental problems (and lower probability of pain) also means I can be more attentive.
Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.
The probability of any one of the above-mentioned events (and many more that could be added to a list of potential triggers) may be small in a given year, but the combined probability of at least one or more of these events happening in the next three years is high.
But the overall message of a lowering probability of a high sensitivity is hard to deny.
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