It is commonly asserted, as we note, that January is an important leading indicator for full year performance.

FORBES: The January Barometer Demystified

On its website is a note suggesting that a 2% annualised fall in its indicator over a six-month period, with more than half of the components worsening, provides a reliable though not perfect warning of recession.

ECONOMIST: Leading economic indicators

This replacement indicator, though, still suggests "sluggish growth rather than recession, " he wrote in a recent note, similar to the story told by the official GDP data.

WSJ: Some Economists Say China's Growth Has Slowed More than Data Suggest