To determine these figures, Ezekowitz analyzed the first-round NCAA tournament games played between teams seeded Nos. 3-14 since 2004. (There weren't any No. 1 or No. 2-seeded teams upset during this period.) The data showed the three statistical strengths common to the teams that pulled off upsets: rebounding, turnovers and strength of schedule.
WSJ: Picking an Upset in the NCAA Tournament