Because I see low costs of capital for corporations persisting along with a low tax rate and below average ratio of employment costs, earnings seem secure even in a below normal GDP setting of 2 percent.

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Trains are hot and everybody (countries, states, cities and towns) wants serveral and soon a train building bubble arises and collapses and the train building business falls to less than half its its normal contribution to GDP.

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Romney, Ryan, and the Republicans would say that the federal tax take should stay at its historically normal level of about 18% of GDP.

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All this means that the U.S. current account deficit in a normal year now runs about 5 percent of GDP.

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Unless the savings rate comes down meaningfully, GDP settles back to a below-normal level.

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It is normal for bank lending to grow a bit faster than GDP in an emerging economy as the financial sector develops, but credit is outpacing GDP by an alarming margin in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong and Turkey.

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The debt-to-GDP ratio responds to the 1981 NGDP in the normal way.

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At that point the GDP and unemployment rates should be back in their normal ranges and increased growth should occur for some time.

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On average, employment took about 19 months to recover after an economic contraction, and since the 2007 recession had such an impact on GDP, it makes sense that hiring will take longer than normal to pick up.

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Even so, however, the deficit would still hover just over 3 percent of GDP after 2015, a manageable level if the economy returns to normal growth.

FORBES: Connect