Two years into this recovery we are quickly approaching the point in the cycle where we might expect a new cyclical contraction in economic activity.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity showed a bigger-than-expected contraction in August, one day after a New York reading showed a contraction for the first time this year.
The PMI in March, for example, strengthened to 61.2, up from 57 in December. (An index value of 50 is the demarcation between and expansion and contraction.) New orders, production and employment all showed increased strength.
And the big private services sector is also in dire straits: purchasing managers reported a record contraction in activity, new business and employment in November.
ECONOMIST: The banking crisis is blunting the effect of rate cuts
Markit blamed the surprise contraction on a fall in new business.
The consequences of inflation for the federal government are a host of new problems, usually involving the spending of more money to counter the economic contraction they caused in the first place.
Now, amid a wrenching contraction in Detroit, Chrysler's private owners at Cerberus Capital Management have a new tactic to force the issue.
The new prime minister is pursuing a broad-based program of shocking Japan out of its fourth contraction since the turn of the century.
FORBES: Japan's New Stimulus: The Race With China To The Bottom
Market commentary: New demand for offices in Ho Chi Minh City declined over the past year because of a contraction in the services industry.
New orders, a proxy for global demand for Chinese goods, reversed a 48.3-contraction reading from August, jumping to 50.9 in September.
FORBES: Manufacturing In China, U.S. Provides Glimmer Of Hope For Europe
The most likely result: a recession that would lead to yet higher federal deficits, higher unemployment, a further squeeze on the middle-class and a contraction in the tax base that would threaten to bankrupt public employee pension plans from California to New York.
应用推荐