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Important cases where the computational definition of R2 can yield negative values, depending on the definition used, arise where the predictions which are being compared to the corresponding outcomes have not been derived from a model-fitting procedure using those data, and where linear regression is conducted without including an intercept.
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The trouble is, while the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is widely accepted, there is no popular definition of a depression, which means there is nowhere to go once recessions stop being relevant.
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If you go by the traditional definition of two quarters of negative growth, the United States avoided entering a recession in the first quarter, but only because of high inventories.
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On the other hand, too lax policy, such as keeping the real deposit rate deeply negative, could fuel asset price bubbles that, by definition, eventually burst.
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The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
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Liberalism applied almost by definition presumes failure, and as evidenced by the negative economic sentiment in the U.S. at present, is showing yet again how inimical it is to personal and economic happiness.
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They are basing their conclusion on the technical definition of a recession which is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
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Second, the definition ignores tail risk, or the risk of extreme outcomes, including negative outcomes.
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Now, if your definition of a recession is the traditional one of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, then those very few contrarians are correct.
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